When Pumpkins Go Missing: The Crunch on Bulk Puree in the Tri-State

Picture this: It’s early October. You’ve planned your seasonal pumpkin menu: pies, breads, lattes, muffins. Your order of wholesale pumpkin puree should be arriving any moment. But instead, there’s silence. Your supplier calls. Inventory is tight. Your margin just took a hit.

If you run a bakery, café, food manufacturer, or any business that buys pumpkin in volume across New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut, you’re feeling the effects of a pumpkin shortage that’s reaching deep into the supply chain. This year, the fall squash season isn’t just about patch visits or pumpkin carvings, it’s about whether your ovens can stay running at expected cost, or whether you’ll have to adjust menus, tighten margins, or scramble for alternatives.

In this post, we’ll dig into what’s happening, why it matters to you, how it’s impacting bulk pumpkin puree and wholesale pumpkin puree, and what strategies can help you ride out the storm.

Not all pumpkins are created equal. The big orange jack-o’-lanterns sold on sidewalks in Brooklyn aren’t the same ones destined for pie filling. Processing pumpkins, sometimes called sugar pumpkins or Dickinson pumpkins, are smaller, denser, and bred for smooth flesh that purees beautifully.

Most of America’s pumpkin puree originates in Illinois, particularly in the Morton-Peoria area, which produces more than 95% of the nation’s canned pumpkin. But don’t discount the role of local farms in the Tri-State. They contribute to fresh markets and regional processing plants, and when they come up short, local distributors feel the pressure.

Once harvested, pumpkins move to processing facilities where they’re washed, cooked, pureed, and canned. Each step loses weight, so even a small dip in raw pumpkin harvests can cascade into significant shortages in finished puree. That’s why farmers’ struggles in the field can quickly turn into headaches for wholesale buyers down the line.

Pumpkins aren’t drama queens, but this year nature threw them a tough script.

Weather was the main culprit. Heavy spring rains in the Northeast delayed planting in several regions, leaving vines behind schedule. By the time summer arrived, drought-like conditions and scorching heat dried out those already weakened fields. Blossoms didn’t set properly, and pollinators weren’t as active in the sweltering conditions. Less pollination means fewer pumpkins.

Farmers in upstate New York reported yields at half of normal levels, while some growers in New Jersey faced smaller fruit with weaker flesh quality. In Connecticut, mildew and fungal rot compounded the problem. Fields that might have produced hundreds of pounds in good years are now delivering far less.

Even in states beyond the Tri-State, like Pennsylvania and Ohio, crops suffered. With those regional neighbors short, there’s less cushion to redirect pumpkins into New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut wholesale markets.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service reported wholesale pumpkin prices in late October 2024 at $157 per bin for Howden carving pumpkins and $212 per bin for pie pumpkins. Some heirloom varieties shot up to $350 per bin. When those are the raw input costs, processors pass increases downstream into puree.

Fresh pumpkin pricing has also been volatile, ranging from $0.36 to $0.86 per pound depending on the region. Wholesale puree export pricing in 2024 hovered around $2.14 to $2.22 per kilogram, nearly a dollar a pound. If international buyers can pay those rates, domestic processors have less incentive to keep prices stable.

The bigger picture: the U.S. processed pumpkin market is projected to reach $1.59 billion in 2024 and grow over 10% annually through 2030. That growth is driven by expanding demand in baked goods, beverages, and desserts. Rising demand plus unstable supply equals volatility. For businesses dependent on  wholesale pumpkin puree, these numbers translate directly into tighter availability and higher costs.

Local signs confirm what the national data suggests. Pumpkin patches in New Jersey have scaled back orders, with some limiting sales to in-person pick-up. Connecticut growers reported smaller fruit and earlier-than-expected sellouts. Upstate New York farms noted fields producing pumpkins that were undersized and blemished, not suitable for either carving or processing.

For a bakery or café, these local shortages translate to distributors running out faster. Orders that once arrived in full may now show up short. And while Illinois puree plants may keep national shelves stocked, freight costs, lead times, and allocation practices still hit Tri-State buyers especially hard.

For wholesale buyers, this year’s pumpkin shortage isn’t an abstract statistic; it’s a direct hit to operations.

Margins shrink quickly when puree pricing climbs. If you’re paying even $0.05 more per pound, multiplied by pallets of puree, that impact is massive. Add freight surcharges, and suddenly the “pumpkin spice” season is less profitable than you planned.

Order allocation is another risk. Distributors often ration limited inventory, leaving smaller or mid-sized buyers with partial shipments. That unpredictability forces businesses to replan menus, hold back promotions, or even run short of seasonal favorites.

Consistency also suffers. In tight markets, processors sometimes stretch puree with other squash varieties. While still tasty, the flavor, texture, or color may shift slightly, forcing bakers to adjust recipes. Customers may notice subtle differences in pies or lattes, and that variability isn’t something every brand can absorb easily.

The good news: with smart planning and supplier partnerships, you can manage through the season.

Order early and communicate
Get your orders in now, not later. The earlier you forecast your needs, the better chance you’ll secure allocations.

Build a buffer
Canned bulk pumpkin puree stays shelf-stable for up to three years. If you can store extra, stock up before peak crunch hits.

Stay flexible on ingredients
Sweet potato, butternut squash, or even kabocha puree can substitute in some recipes. Blending 10% alternative puree into a pumpkin pie recipe is often undetectable once spices are added.

Menu adjustments
Consider diversifying seasonal offerings. Promote apple or maple-based items alongside pumpkin. By balancing demand, you reduce pressure on pumpkin inventory.

Consider contract pricing
If your volume is high enough, talk to your supplier about forward contracts. Locking in pricing for several months protects you from sudden spikes.

Work with Baker’s Authority
We can help secure supply, explore substitutions, and provide buffer stock when available. Communication with your rep is key. Knowing your monthly needs helps us fight for your allocation.

Pumpkin demand isn’t slowing. Analysts project steady market growth through 2030. That means supply squeezes will recur, especially when weather swings hit the Midwest or Northeast.

Buyers should expect continued volatility in pricing and availability. Building long-term resilience into your operations through contracts, safety stock, and flexible recipes will be critical.

Packaging and labor costs are unlikely to fall either. Even in strong harvest years, higher metal, freight, and labor costs will keep puree from being as cheap as in the past.

At Baker’s Authority, we’re not just a supplier, we’re your partner in keeping kitchens stocked and seasonal menus alive.

We source from multiple suppliers across regions, so a weak harvest in one place doesn’t wipe out your access. We buffer inventory when possible, hold safety stock, and prioritize clients who share clear forecasts. And we keep communication transparent: if supply is tight or prices are moving, you’ll hear it from us early.

When shortages strike, we also help with substitutions whether frozen puree, squash blends, or other compatible ingredients. Our goal is to help you manage costs, maintain consistency, and keep your seasonal offerings strong.

This pumpkin season in the Tri-State isn’t business as usual. Weather stress, smaller yields, higher costs, and rising demand are squeezing the supply chain. For bakeries, cafés, and manufacturers, that translates to pricier wholesale pumpkin puree and tighter bulk supplies.

But shortages don’t have to mean disaster. With early orders, smart substitutions, and strong supplier support, you can keep pumpkin pies, breads, and lattes flowing all season long.

So before the shelves empty further, get in touch with your Baker’s Authority rep. Together we’ll keep your ovens stocked, your customers happy, and your menus full of autumn flavor, even in a year when pumpkins decided to play hard to get.